Hamas Victory: Not a Bad Thing After All.  

By Ali Sina

2006/02/01  

The victory of the Hamas, a group listed as terrorists by the US , EU, Israel , and pretty much everyone, except of course other rouge regimes such as the Iranian mullahs, has shocked the world.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice admitted: “I don't know anyone who wasn't caught off guard by Hamas’ strong showing”.

Meeting in London, the diplomatic Quartet on Middle East peace, consisting of US, EU, Russia and UN, pledged to keep money flowing into Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas's interim caretaker administration meanwhile, until Hamas forms its government in three months.

But the Quartet warned that the Palestinians' critical lifeline of foreign aid that amounts to one billion dollars a year, could be lost unless Hamas abandons violence, recognises Israel, honors the agreements reached by the PA and embraces the diplomatic road map to peace.

Hamas however called this “blackmail”.

A senior Hamas leader, Ismail Haniya, appealed on Monday to the Quartet to meet the Hamas leaders for "a dialogue without preliminary conditions and in a spirit of neutrality".

Things seem to be reaching an impasse. It seems that the road map to peace is now ashes in the wind.  It would be ludicrous for the US and EU to enter into dialogue with an organization that considers terrorism a legitimate means of operation.

However things are not as bad as they look. Two things could happen and both are good.

One is that the Hamas’ leaders find a face saving way to recognize Israel ’s right to exist and give up violence. This would be the ideal scenario, which many hope would happen. The advantage of this is that Hamas can deliver what its rival al Fatal could not, and that is the guarantee that a ceasefire would be respected.

But the main advantage of Hamas as the government is that now the enemy has a real face. Now the PA can be held responsible if the suicide missions in the Israel continue and punished accordingly. What gives the terrorist their power is their anonymity. Ironically the terrorists are powerful because they are cowards. Their strength comes from the fact that they can hit and hide. Once they become the government, they can hide no more and lose their power.

Paradoxically, by winning, Hamas is weakened. A suicide attack in Israel will not be seen as an act of terrorism anymore but as an act of war, which would leave Israel ’s hands free to strike militarily at any target in Palestine . Hamas leaders are not stupid (at least not to this degree). They know the difference between operating a terrorist organization and an army. They can be successful as terrorists, but as an army, they will be squished in matter of hours.

Would Hamas eventually recognize the right of Israel to exist? I would say yes. But I am not going to bet on it. After all we are talking about Muslims and there is an element of obstinacy and unpredictability when you deal with them.

But let us be practical. If the money does not flow in from outside, how would the Hams pay the salaries of the policemen, the clerks, the teachers, or the bus drivers? Hamas receives a lot of aid from other Islamists, with which they financed their soup kitchens, schools and hospitals. Those operations were intended to gain the loyalty and the vote of the people – a stratagem, which obviously has worked. They learned this from their Iranian co-ideologists when they staged their revolution in 1979. The Islamic “charities” are for gaining the support of the masses and enlist them in the Islamists cause. This is how they are operating in Pakistan as well.

Now, running a government is entirely a different ball game. This is expensive business. Where the Hamas is going to get the one billion dollars needed to pay the bills?

Iran is one possible source. But remember that the Iranian government is extremely unpopular among its own people. Despite the propaganda, this government is not elected by the people. The candidates were decided for them. The choices were between Rafsanjai, a cleric cum business mogul, corrupt to his bone marrow and hated by everyone, and an unknown younger candidate without the clerical robe, of whom the Iranians knew nothing. So they voted for the unknown hoping for the best. As it turned out, the unknown was even worse than the known. It is better to have a thief as the president than a lunatic religious nutcase, with messianic vision of the world destruction.

Ahmadinejad was born to a very poor and low class worker family. This Mr. Nobody is suddenly the president of the country. Sudden power has made his head swell and now he really believes to be a divine instrument to bring the end of the world and haste the advent of the “hidden Imam”, which according to a saying of Muhammad would come when Muslims kill the Jews. This guy is crazy. He scares even the Mullahs.

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