The
Iranian Crisis
By Ali Sina
The Chinese ideogram
for crisis is composed of two separate characters: one means danger and
the other means opportunity.
Today Iran is in
crisis. There lies a great danger as well as a great opportunity.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is a great danger
to the world peace and your life. The Mullahs ruling Iran are developing
atomic bombs and this means disaster for humanity.
Mohammed Khatami, the so-called
reformist and pro-Western Iranian president, announced last week that the
Islamic Republic will continue enriching uranium in defiance of a
resolution adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that
demanded
Iran
stop all nuclear-related activity
(1)
On October 1, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati decried the importance
of the sanctions that the UN may impose on Iran and told worshippers at Friday prayers in
Tehran
that possible U.N. sanctions on Iran
would make the Islamic republic stronger than ever.
"
Iran
will never yield to international pressure to abandon its home-grown
nuclear technology," said Jannati, who heads
Iran
's hardliner Guardian Council -- a powerful, unelected supervisory body.
"Americans should know that it is just impossible. You will take this
wish to the grave," Jannati said.(2)
On
Monday 27 Sep 2004 Maj.
Gen. Rahim Safawi, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, said
Iran
is ready to confront
U.S.
pressure, including military.
"We advise the Americans and the Europeans to beware of
Iran
regional weight and capacity and to recognize its rights and importance in
the region. We are ready to confront any pressures against us, be they
political, economic and even military." Safawi warned. (3)
Mullah’s role in
international terrorism is not a secret. Their intentions are well known.
If they get hold of atomic bomb, they will certainly use it or give it to
the terrorist groups whom they support to use it. This is one threat that
the world must not ignore. Nuclearization of the Mullahs means nuclear war
worldwide. The Mullahs must be stopped NOW or we will have to prepare
ourselves for the next World War.
Sanctions and UN
resolutions don’t work. These are child plays. There are two options to
stop the bomb falling in the hands of the terrorist Mullahs.
One is to invade
Iran
militarily and the other is to help the insurgency inside the country to overthrow their
hated regime.
Attacking
Iran
directly has many downsides. The experience in
Iraq
has not been encouraging. It is unlikely that America
or any other country would want to engage in another war.
Such war
no matter how "surgical" would produce
many civilian casualties and this will alienate the population against the
invading force. It would also cause unnecessary damages to the country's infrastructure.
This could cause a backlash, provoke anti American sentiment, which would aggravate the problem instead of solving it.
The other option is to
empower the insurgency. This is the most viable option.
The insurgency has already begun.
On Sunday
26 September
A rare pro-democracy protest
in
Tehran
gained momentum late on Sunday with hundreds of cars pouring into the
streets, blaring horns and provoking an appearance from hardline
vigilantes.
Persian-language television channels from the
United States
had been broadcasting callers throughout the day who had exhorted
Iranians to turn out for demonstrations.
Two hundred riot police were drafted into central
Tehran
earlier in the day when more than 2,000 people started milling round the
streets after a minor protest inspired by the U.S.-based channels,
witnesses said. (4)
On Tuesday
28 September w
idespread clashes erupted between people and security forces in Nour-Abad
region of Mamasani, Bandar Abbas and Miandoab
At least seven people were killed and hundreds more were reportedly
wounded and a vast number of people have been detained.
The commander of Miandoab’s security forces and two members of his
entourage were killed by a violent crowd which had taken to the streets
following revelations of corruption within the clerical establishment.
Smoke could be seen rising from the rooftops of many government
buildings. Charred debris were visible from burnt vehicles of the State
Security Forces (SSF). Townspeople took control over the regime’s
security headquarters.
One man was reported to have been killed in one of the ensuing clashes
between local residents and SSF forces and Revolutionary Guards sent in
from neighboring districts. Many more have been wounded in the street
battles.
Also in Bandar Abbas members of the Revolutionary Guards Marine Corps
killed 3 persons, according to eye-witnesses. Local residents, outraged
by the news of the killings, rioted and attacked the Governors office.
(5)
On Wednesday
29 September,
four people were killed
and a dozen were injured in northwestern
Iran
in a clash between a religious sect and the forces of the regime. The
group claims that their leader is the promised Shiite Mahdi, the 12th
Imam. The Shiites believe Mahdi will appear when the earth is filled
with injustice. He will come to kill the antichrist and bring justice to
the world. The emergence of such cults among the less educated people is
a clear indication of the general discontent even among the hard core
Islamists.
In this confrontation at least 12
police officers were injured and some eight cult members were arrested
and three were killed (6)
On October 2
Violent clashes erupted between local residents and the security forces
in the city of
Isfahan
, central
Iran. Among the casualties was a 14 year-old schoolboy who reportedly was
shot and seriously wounded.
On Thursday, eye-witnesses in nearby Shahin Shahr reported clashes
between local people and armed Bassij Forces through the early hours of
the day. Residents said that the majority of those who fought against
the Bassij Forces were teenagers.
Sporadic street-battles continued well into the night and in the early hours of Friday
morning a government-owned oil storage was set alight along with
juggernaut tires in Seyedi Shomali street
.
In the past week there have been deadly clashes between angry youths and
State Security Forces in the cities of Bandar Abbas and Miandoab and the
Nour-Abad region of Mamasani, with seven fatalities.
Analysts say rising discontent and frustration among youth over
government-imposed restrictions and widespread unemployment are the main
reason for the growing number of public protests across the country.
(7)
Cities such as, Tehran, Esfahan, Hamadan, Ardebil,
Shiraz, Kermanshah, Ahwaz, Falavarjan, Oroomiah (former Rezai-e) and Yazd
were widely affected by these unrests. The most violent clashes have been
reported from Esfahan where the crowd attacked public buildings, banks,
Islamist centers and patrol cars in retaliation to the brutal attack of
militiamen which were sent to stop their public peaceful demonstrations. (8)
The discontent is rampant. According
to one poll conducted by the government itself 94% of the Iranians want an
end to the Mullahcracy in
Iran.
In the
next page I'll discuss how to convert the Iranian crisis into opportunity.
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