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Coming back to the main story, on June 4, 2005, about
10,000 opposition Azerbaijanis chanted “Freedom!” and carried pictures of
President Bush as they marched across nation’s capital (Baku), urging the
government of this U.S. ally to step down and allow free parliamentary elections
this year.
The spontaneous rally in
Baku
was the largest of its kind in which opposition demonstrators shouted
“Freedom.” The last time Azeri
people came out to demonstrate against the government was in October 2003 when
one person died and nearly 200 were injured in clashes between police and
demonstrators protesting vote rigging in the presidential election.
Tensions have been building ever since October 2003
demonstration in this oil-rich
Caspian Sea
nation in the run-up to parliamentary elections set for November 2005.
Experts from the region predict that
Azerbaijan
could see a massive uprising similar to the ones that toppled unpopular and
autocratic regimes in other ex-Soviet nations of
Georgia
,
Ukraine
, and
Kyrgyzstan
during the past 18 months.
According to news report, supporters of several opposition
parties shouted “Freedom!” and “Free Elections!” while holding placards
with such slogans as “Down with robber government!”
Some even carried a picture of Bush with the inscription: “We want
freedom!” Azerbaijanis know that
America
has its eye fixed on this oil-rich nation. Therefore, carrying Bush’s photo
while protesting against the repressive regime meant asking
America
’s help to topple the present government.
The U.S. Department of State has given a statement in which
it welcomed granting by the Azerbaijan Government of permit to the meeting of
opposition on June 4, 2005, last Saturday in
Baku
. State Department spokesperson, Mr.
Sean McCormack, underlined that the political rally ended peacefully.
On behalf of the Bush Administration, he called on the government of
Azerbaijan
to grant permit to further demonstrations of opposition so that the forthcoming
fall parliament elections met international standards.
Why should
America
have interest in seeing a pro-West government installed in
Baku
a la
Georgia
,
Ukraine
, and
Kyrgyzstan
? The answer lies in the fact that
Azerbaijan
sits on a massive oil reserve. Oil
output from
Azerbaijan
is expected to balloon to more than 20 million tones in 2005.
Furthermore, according to President Ilham Aliyev,
Azerbaijan
, which inaugurated the four-billion-dollar Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline
in May 2005, is expected to see output grow further to 50 million tons per year
in 2006 Aliyev said at an oil and gas conference.
It should be noted here that
America
had backed the BTC project -- an infrastructure initiative that will allow
Caspian Sea producers to get their oil to Western markets without going through
Russia
– that is expected to handle the excess output from the oilfield located on
the
Caspian Sea
.
America
is hoping that the BTC pipeline when fully functional would allow the West to
depend less on OPEC nation to fulfill their energy demand.
After 2010 when
Azerbaijan
will produce less oil, then
Kazakhstan
would commit their crude to the BTC pipeline.
These are the reasons why
America
and the West would like to see a pro-West government installed in
Baku
. The present president, Ilham
Aliyev, while maintains good terms with both Kremlin and Washington but fellow
Azeris considers him an authoritarian ruler because he has the virtual monopoly
to power in Azerbaijan.
Some experts in
Baku
say that the opening of BTC marked the unofficial start of the parliamentary
election campaign. President Aliyev
and other top officials have offered assurances that the parliamentary vote will
be fair. Opposition leaders,
however, voiced their concerns about such exaggerated claims, and expressed a
desire to intensify the pressure on the government.
Opposition protesters on June 4, 2005, milled on the streets for
electoral amendments designed to dilute the Aliyev administration’s influence
over election commissions on all levels.
In summary, opposition politicians and their supporters
took to the streets in
Baku
to demonstrate against the present regime on June 4, 2005.
The good thing is that Aliyev regime allowed the demonstration to go
through. The parliamentary election
is nearing; therefore, the restive opposition politicians are agitating on the
streets of the capital. The Aliyev
Administration hailed the opening of BTC pipeline as a monumental achievement;
however, the opposition politicians are using the same venue to tell the world
that all is not well in this oil-rich Muslim nation as far as democracy and free
election is concerned. Stay tuned
for more development in the political front.
My take is that Aliyev is a seasoned politician who would be difficult to
remove in the near term. In
addition, the Bush Administration is in good term with him.
Therefore, there is no urgency in toppling Aliyev.
We maybe entering a New World Order but
America
still calls the shots.
----------------------------
Dr. A.H. Jaffor Ullah, a researcher and columnist, writes
from
New Orleans
,
USA
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